A 2024 economic overview report by Westpac Bank published at the end of February, forecasts that house prices will rise by six percent this calendar year, and by a further seven percent in 2025 - largely buoyed by strong population growth, along with the supply of new housing shrinking in the face of growing demand.

"New Zealand continues to surf the peak of a historic migration wave," says the Westpac market analysis. The outlook hinges on how quickly the wave recedes and how the labour market absorbs what we expect to be still high levels of labour supply through 2024”.

Concurrently, independent property economist Tony Alexander notes in his latest Mortgage Advisers’ Survey that three main themes are coming through from property mortgage brokers:

1. While first-home buyers are active, investors remain cautious. First home buyers continue to have a strong presence in the housing market as we start to advance through 2024 in an uncertain interest rates environment. A net 46 percent of survey respondents have reported that they are seeing more first-home buyers looking for advice. This is up from a net 38 percent in January but is consistent with almost all other results since this time a year ago.
2. Banks are slowly easing their lending criteria but are not overly competing for business in general. Some banks have started offering more cash-back incentives, as well as sharp rates for first-home buyers - even if they are on high loan-to-value ratios.
3. Some buyers are awaiting clarity on how the debt-to-income (DTI) criteria will work, and where interest rates are headed.

Looking specifically at Canterbury, the latest Real Estate Institute of New Zealand statistics released mid-March show that median house price values grew within many of the areas within Canterbury :

• Within the greater Christchurch City area, median price values increased 6.8 percent in the 12 months to February.2024 – rising from $675,000 to $721,000
• Within the Ashburton area, median price values increased 5.7 percent in the 12 months to February.2024 – rising from $525,000 to $555,000
• Within the Selwyn area, median price values increased 4.1 percent in the 12 months to February.2024 – rising from $797,000 to $830,000
• Within the Waimakariri area, median price values increased 2.3 percent in the 12 months to February.2024 – rising from $689,000 to $705,000.

Across the Canterbury province as a whole, median residential property price values rose by 5.2 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.

Meanwhile, the latest REINZ results for Canterbury highlight that the current ‘median days to sell’ figure of 42 days is the same as the 10-year average for February. There were approximately 17 weeks of residential property inventory in February 2024 for buyers to choose from – which is four weeks less than the same time last year.

Analysing recent activity trends across the Greater Canterbury region, REINZ chief executive officer Jen Baird noted: “Most vendors are willing to meet the market and adjust their asking price, although some have begun to raise their price expectations.”

“Open home attendance ranged from steady to very good. Auction activity was varied - with steady bidding for some properties,” added Jen Baird.

“Interest rates and the cost of living are the main factors affecting the market, and local real estate salespeople have noted that some buyers are cautious, while others want to buy soon before demand or prices lift further.”

If you’d like to discuss any of the above, please get in touch with any of the skilled real estate salespeople from Bayleys Canterbury. The residential sales team is always available to share our market knowledge with both vendors and potential buyers. Feel free to give us a call – we look forward to hearing from you.